Michigan high school football, this week.
Explore team schedules, division rankings and matchup predictions.
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How do they match up?
Compare scoring, defense, and the schedules behind the records.
Preparing the matchup model…
Loading the latest scored weekend and coverage status. Probabilities are estimates; upsets and large score errors remain possible.
Every week. Every known matchup.
Projected winners, scores and totals for the season’s schedule.
| Matchup | Expected score | Projected winner | Win chance | Total points | Result / pick |
|---|
Scores follow the team order shown and are expected averages, not exact-score promises. Current forecasts use the tested home-field adjustment for verified MHSAA home-team listings. Unknown venues receive no adjustment. Dates are Friday weekend labels; exact kickoff times are unavailable. A model total is the sum of the projected scores.
Historical picks are reconstructed from earlier game weekends in the current archive. They are not a saved pregame record and can change with source corrections. Forfeits, unresolved scores and results under review are excluded from the weekly accuracy. Even picks receive half credit. Low-sample picks include a team with fewer than three rated games that season.
Current forecasts refresh with verified updates. Monday editions preserve the published picks while later scores update the grades. There is no connected live score feed. Playoff games appear when the matchups are added.
THE UNDERDOG WATCH
Who could shake up the week?
Five featured upset chances, ranked by the underdog’s model win probability.
How we choose the alerts
We feature up to five underdogs with a 25–48% estimated win chance, ordered from highest to lowest. Each team needs at least three rated games. The underdog must also trail in projected points. Even matchups, low-sample forecasts, forfeits, disputed scores and unresolved opponents are excluded. Division filters include games with either school in that division.
The list uses that week’s forecasts, not today’s rankings or which underdogs eventually won. Final scores only label the selected games. Locked Monday editions preserve their forecasts; reconstructed weeks are retrospective estimates, not a saved pregame alert board. Current forecasts refresh with verified updates. Playoff alerts appear when matchups and predictions are available.
Make your Friday night picks.
Vote for Game of the Week, pick the winners and track your accuracy against the model.
Beyond the win–loss record.
Power ratings estimate strength after accounting for opponent quality.
Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse. Rank always shows overall power rank. Record sorts by win percentage. All rating columns use points relative to the model average. Higher is better; a higher schedule rating means tougher opponents. Records include forfeits; performance ratings exclude them.
2026 · 11-player · Division 8
Saginaw Nouvel football
Tri-Valley Conference - Blue
POWER RANKING#289
PPG for
27.7PPG against
26.2Power
-2.5Adjusted offense
-0.7Adjusted defense
-1.7Schedule strength
-3.8Division power rank
192026 schedule and predictions
Results through 2026-11-06. Scores follow Saginaw Nouvel–opponent.
| Week | Opponent | Model prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Allen Park Cabrini | 27.3–24.3 · 55.9% win chance | 25–21 |
| Week 2 | Clarkston Everest | 24.3–17.4 · 67.1% win chance | 7–41 |
| Week 3 | Ithaca | 11.3–44.8 · 1.9% win chance | 7–63 |
| Week 4 | Saginaw Valley Lutheran | 10.8–36.8 · 3.5% win chance | 28–31 |
| Week 5 | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 31.1–32.4 · 45.6% win chance | 22–21 |
| Week 6 | Carrollton | 39.8–18.8 · 93.1% win chance | 51–8 |
| Week 7 | Hemlock | 30.2–14.3 · 88.5% win chance | 44–7 |
| Week 8 | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 28.9–27.3 · 55.2% win chance | 15–34 |
| Week 9 | Melvindale Academy Business & Tech | 59.3–12.2 · 99.5% win chance | 56–0 |
| Week 10 | Unionville-Sebewaing | 16.6–33.8 · 8.7% win chance | 22–36 |
2026 PLAYOFF BRACKET CHALLENGE
Write your road to a state title.
Loading the bracket field…
Optional: access an existing ChatGPT-linked entry →
No account needed. Enter a public name and save. Play just your school’s division or as many as you want. Return in this same browser to edit your guest entry; clearing cookies or changing devices loses access. Unsaved picks stay on this device until you submit.
How to play · scoring & recognition
Free entry. One entry per person. No ChatGPT account required. No purchase, cash prize or material reward. Winners earn bragging rights, an Instagram spotlight and a permanent Hall of Fame place.
Planned deadline: October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM Eastern. Official entry opens only after the first kickoffs are verified to be after this deadline. Edit and save until the lock; afterward, entries cannot change.
| 11-player round | 8-player round | Points per correct pick |
|---|---|---|
| District semifinal | — | 1 |
| District final | Regional semifinal | 2 |
| Regional final | Regional final | 4 |
| State semifinal | State semifinal | 8 |
| State champion | State champion | 16 |
11-player brackets have 80 possible points; 8-player brackets have 64. Complete one division to compete in that division. Saved unfinished brackets appear as in progress. Completing all 10 is only required for the overall competition. Overall score is the average of your percentage of possible points across all 10 divisions. First tiebreaker: most correctly picked state champions. Any remaining tie earns shared honors.
Results are graded against published playoff finals. A pick earns points when that team wins the corresponding bracket game. Eliminated teams cannot earn later points. Model contest picks freeze when official entries open; matchup odds can update as new results arrive.
The brackets follow the official MHSAA playoff pairings. This is an independent 4th & Forecast challenge.
Who wins each division?
State championship favorites for 11-man and 8-man football.
2026 model accuracy.
Week 3 onward · Graded against accepted final scores.
The Monday record.
Original predictions, rankings and playoff outlooks, saved before that week’s games.
Report a score issue.
Send a final score with a public source. Every report is reviewed before results change.